The Bubble 3/2/09

The big question in college basketball is whether your team will be in or out of the NCAA tournament. Teams that win their conference tournaments get in automatically, and there are 31 conferences, which leaves 34 at-large bids for teams to get to the Big Dance. Teams that are borderline for being good enough for the tournament are “on the bubble”. On Selection Sunday, there are always a few surprise bubble teams that get in, and a few that are left out that many people thought were in. For the past few years, Syracuse has been left out of the field of 65 even though they have compiled some impressive seasons. This has stirred up some doubt about the selection committee, but they do have a stressful job and can’t make everyone happy. Syracuse did make it in back in 2006, when Gerry McNamara hit a series of game-winning shots to lead the Orangemen to an improbable Big East tournament championship victory. This year’s squad probably won’t have the same problem. They are 21-8 and 9-7 in a rugged Big East Conference. The selection committee heavily considers wins over RPI Top 50 teams and how well a team does in its last 8 or 10 games in considering seeds for tournament teams and if a team should get in or not. For example, Syracuse has beaten Kansas (24-5) and Memphis (26-3) and their only non-conference loss was to Cleveland State at the buzzer. Here are some pros and cons for some key bubble teams as the season winds down.

Maryland (18-10): Pro: Beat then No. 3 North Carolina and No. 5 Michigan State, the latter on the road. Con: Lost to Morgan State, whose RPI is well over 100. Verdict: In: Must win one out of last two games. Have to win a couple of games in ACC tournament. They might have to face No.2 Duke or No. 3 North Carolina in the conference tourney.

Rhode Island (22-8): Pro: Beat No.65 VCU, won last 6 games and last 9 out of 10. Con: Lost to No. 98 St. Joe’s. Verdict: In: They must win a couple games in A-10 tournament, but they don’t need to win the whole thing. No.11 Xavier is the only Top 25 team in the conference.

Kentucky (19-10): Pro: Beat No. 20 West Virginia. Beat No.21 Tennessee twice. Con: Lost 5 out of last 8 games, lost to No. 91 Mississippi State and to No. 104 Vanderbilt. Verdict: Out: Too inconsistent, had promising victories, but they need to win their conference tournament to get in NCAA tourney. No. 21 Tennessee and No. 11 LSU are the only Top 25 teams in the conference right now.

Notre Dame (16-12): Pro: Beat No. 38 Texas and No. 10 Louisville. Con: Lost to No. 147 St. John’s , lost 4 of last 8 games, 7-9 in Big East play so far. Verdict: Out: Couldn’t win during conference play, need to win conference tournament to get in NCAA tourney. They might have to face No.1 Pittsburgh or No. 6 UConn in the conference tournament.

Baylor (17-11): Pro: Beat No. 33 Arizona State and No.31 Oklahoma State and No.35 Texas A&M. Con: Lost to No. 135 Texas Tech and to No. 152 Iowa State, lost 6 out of last 8 games and are 5-9 in conference play so far. Verdict: Out: They were too erratic in conference play and would have to win their conference tournament. They might have to face No.5 Oklahoma who just got National Player of the Year candidate Blake Griffin back from a concussion.

Providence (18-11): Pro: Beat No.23 Syracuse and No.1 Pittsburgh. Con: Lost to No. 80 Northeastern, lost 4 of last 8 games. Verdict: In: They have the ability to beat great teams and can win a couple of games in the Big East tournament. No key losses.

This is what I think. See if you agree with me. But I’m sure of one thing: picking teams to get into the Big Dance, as hard as it is, is nothing compared to correctly picking games for your bracket during the tournament.